Advances in Management and Applied Economics

The Effect of Oil Price on China’s Grain Prices: a VAR model

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  • Abstract

     

    In recent years, the simultaneous trend of crude oil prices and agricultural prices has gained numerous attention of policy makers and market participants. This paper uses a vector autoregression model to examine the impact of the international crude oil prices on China’s grain prices including wheat, maize, soybean and rice during the period from June 2004 to December 2018. Empirical results indicates that international crude oil prices have a positive and significant impact on China’s grain prices. The response of grain prices would gradually decline to zero after reaching its maximum. Among these grain prices, the response of maize and soybean prices to crude oil prices is stronger than the rice and wheat prices. The error variance decomposition results show that most of the volatility in all price variables can be explained by own shocks, even though the fluctuation of grain prices are all affected by crude oil prices.

    JEL classification numbers: O13

    Keywords: Oil prices, Grain prices, VAR, Variance decomposition.