work discusses the impact of social distancing and vaccination on the monthly
variation rate of new cases and deaths of COVID-19 around the world. A
statistical panel-regression model was applied to daily data for 131 countries
from March, 2020 to December, 2021. The setting of suitable control variables
was essential to achieve reliable results. We found, as a possible consequence
of strict social distancing, a decrease of around 5.5 percentage points in the
growth rate of both new cases and deaths, before vaccination. The possible
impact of progress in vaccination, in 2021 was even stronger: a decrease of 9
and 12 percentage points on the growth of new cases and deaths, respectively.
As a final conclusion, our dataset and the method employed did not allow to
exclude either the hypothesis that strict social distancing was an important
measure to control the pandemic before the advent of vaccines, nor the
conjuncture that the impact of vaccination has been stronger, mainly with
regard to deaths.
numbers: C13, C33, I18.
Keywords: COVID-19, Social Distancing, Vaccination, Panel model.