This study aims to model the dynamic relationships between the number of
COVID-19 infected cases and deaths in all the districts of Kerala state, India,
from January 2021 to December 2021 based on the panel vector auto-regressive
model. The random effect panel vector auto-regressive model of order two was
found suitable to model dynamic relationships. This model explains 62 % variations in
the endogenous variable, deaths (number of deaths). The exogenous variable deaths
(-1) are highly significant, whereas
the exogenous variable cases (-1) are significant at a 5% level. Both of these
exogenous variables positively influence the endogenous variable. The other
exogenous variables, viz., deaths (-2) and cases (-2), are non-significant. The
Durbin-Watson test statistic value confirms the independence of the residuals,
and the Wald test confirms the validity of the
significance of the estimated regression coefficients.
JEL classification numbers: E18, HO, I1, J64, J88.
Keywords: Fixed and Random Effect Models,
Panel VAR model, Cointegration test, Levin-Lin-Chu unit root test, Granger causality test, Hausan
test, Wald test.