Journal of Statistical and Econometric Methods

Forecasting Monthly Prices of Gold Using Artificial Neural Network

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  • Abstract 
     
    This study successfully fitted an artificial neural network to a series on gold prices. The data used was monthly gold prices in US dollars and cents per troy ounce from October 2004 to February 2020. Of the 17 suggested Artificial Neural Network structures, the one with 2, 6 and 1 neurons in the input, hidden and output layers (ANN (2-6-1)) was adjudged the best because it had the least error, Mean Square Error (MSE) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE). The adequacy of the selected model was further confirmed by graphical examination of the actual values of gold prices and the ones predicted by the model as well as graphical residual analysis. Consequently, forecasts were made using the chosen network. The forecasts suggest a decline in gold prices in the coming months. 
     
    Keywords: Gold, Forecasting, ANN.