According to the IPCC’s simplest model based on the anthropogenic driving forcing factors, the temperature increase up to 2011 from 1750 is 1.15 °C, which is 35 % greater than the observed temperature 0.85 °C. In this study three other models have been analysed. The first model is a cosmic model, which is based on the galactic cosmic rays (GCR) changes and space dust amount. This model gives correlation r2=0.972. The second model is the combination of space dust changes, the calculated warming impacts of greenhouse gases and the Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) changes giving correlation r2=0.971. The third model is the combination of space dust and TSI changes giving correlation r2=0.948. All these models have negligible error in 2010. The atmospheric water has a decisive role in the real impacts of greenhouse gases. It remains uncertain, because the first global humidity measurements start from 1948. The final conclusion of this study is: the greenhouse gases cannot explain the ups and downs of the Earth’s temperature trend since 1750 and the temperature pause since 1998, but the space dust changes can do it extremely well.