Journal of Applied Finance & Banking

Analysis of the Effects of the US Stock Market Returns and Exchange Rate Changes on Emerging Market Economiesí Stock Market Volatilities

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  • Abstract

    In this paper, the effects of the US stock market returns, exchange rate changes and volatilities on stock market volatilities in 10 emerging market economies between 2000-2013 (also two sub-periods covering the time between 2000-2007, and between 2008-2013) have been analysed with separate 30 VAR models. According to the analysis, the fact that the US stock market returns cause stock market volatilities is revealed to be the most prominent result in the whole period. In the 2000-2013 period and the 2008-2013 interval, covering the term following the Global Financial Crisis of 2008, there was a remarkable increase in causality.

    JEL classification numbers: G15, F37, F31, C58
    Keywords: Stock market volatilities, exchange rates, financial markets, Granger Causality/Block Exogeneity Wald Test, variance decomposition analysis