International Journal of Health Research and Innovation

An Assessment of the Relationship Between Rainfall and Incidence of Malaria Among Pregnant Women

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  • Abstract 

    This research work examined the relationship between rainfall and the prevalence of malaria among pregnant women in Abia-South Senatorial District of Abia State, Nigeria. The rainfall data used in this study was extracted from Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Satellite while the data on the incidence of malaria among pregnant women from the Headquarters of Primary Health Care Centers in Abia-South Senatorial District, Abia State. Preliminary analysis showed that incidence of malaria cases was on a steady increase while rainfall in the area remained relatively constant across time. The Pearson-Product Moment Correlation was employed to assess the strength of linear relationship between the variables considered. The correlation coefficient (r=0.04; p=0.807) shows that there is no statistical significant association between amount of rainfall and incidence of malaria among pregnant women in the locality. Further more the slope of the negative binomial regression model was 0.000114 whose exponent value is 1.000114. The exponent value which is roughly 1 indicates that any change in amount of rainfall will leave cases of malaria among pregnant  women in the area unchanged since 1 is a multiplicative identity. Therefore, rainfall should not be considered in mitigating the transmission of malaria in the study area. However, further research should be carried out to examine the impact of other climatic variables like temperature and relative humidity on malaria prevalence in the study area as well as other human activities which could be cause of increase in the incidence of malaria among pregnant women in the area. 

    Keywords: Negative Binomial Regression, Correlation, Rainfall, Malaria, Pregnant Women.